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It’s 4:55 AM on a March day at the National
Weather Services’ Twin Cities forecast facility

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when the morning stillness is broken by the
rattle of a garage door opening.

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As they do every single morning of every single
day, a meteorologist working the station’s

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Public Service Desk is launching a helium
and hydrogen-filled latex balloon connected

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to an expendable radiosonde by 80 feet of
string.

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At the very same time, meteorologists from
the other 91 NWS radiosonde stations across

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the US, along with hundreds from around the
globe, are launching their own upper-air atmospheric

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soundings.

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In the next two hours, these balloons will
climb up to 100,000 feet, or 30,000 meters

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into the atmosphere, drifting as far as 200
miles or 320 kilometers from their launch

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point while their payload, about the weight
of a grapefruit, relays temperature, air pressure,

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and humidity data back to the station.

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The technology might be simple, but the readings
from various altitudes captured every 12 hours

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are simply irreplaceable.

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These data—transmitted by radio frequency
then scrubbed for errors by the meteorologist

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that launched the balloon in the first place—will
get compiled and plugged into impossibly complex

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models in the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction, and then archived at the National

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Climate and Data Center.

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But that’s later.

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Right now, as the Minneapolis meteorologist
follows their highly standardized routine

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one reading catches their eye.

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The barometer reads 1,017 millibars—a high
pressure front’s developing.

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For our meteorologist, an arctic cold front
means a few more freezing commutes and balloon

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launches.

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For the rest of the US, it might not mean
much, or it might present a problem—but

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that’s not a conclusion the data from a
single balloon can possibly offer.

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To fulfill their task of telling the public
what’s to come, the US’ National Weather

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Service is going to need far, far more data.\h

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To start, the NWS operates 160 high-resolution
Doppler weather radars, each dedicating seven

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seconds an hour to emitting quick bursts of
energy, then the rest listening for its return

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to interpret what’s present in the sky—water
or air.

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The multi-million dollar installations are
spread out across the fifty states, Puerto

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Rico, Guam, and uniquely, at one US military
base in Okinawa, Japan, and two others in

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South Korea—putting the American National
Weather Service in the exceptional position

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of maintaining near-complete weather radar
coverage over a foreign country.

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In the US itself, most metro areas are covered,
and the deployment of the system was credited

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with increasing average tornado warning times
from four to eleven minutes, but still, meaningful

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gaps exist.

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While gaps over sparsely-populated western
states are inconvenient obstacles to accurate

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forecasts, the NWS lacks visibility into some
slivers of the area known as Tornado Alley—an

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area that relies on these radars to give them
the notice needed to get into shelters when

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a tornado does form.

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With these NEXRAD radars now out of production
and every existing one in use, there is little

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opportunity for improvement short of a costly
system-wide upgrade, but for the most part,

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these 160 radars get the job done and form
the foundation of the agency’s data-collection

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mission.

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But as groundbreakingly effective radar technology
is, it’s a proxy for measurements actually

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taken in the sky.

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This is why the NWS goes through the effort
to launch those hundreds of weather balloons

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daily, but of course, planes are already up
there anyways.

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Not only that, but the typical commercial
aircraft already has the instruments necessary

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to observe atmospheric conditions, so that’s
why the World Meteorological Organization

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set up the Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay
system.

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43 airlines around the world—including Alaska,
American, Delta, FedEx, Hawaiian, Southwest,

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United, and UPS—have agreed to collect meteorological
data in-flight and transmit it to the WMO

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via satellite or VHF radio.

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Meteorologists describe these data as crucial
to the accuracy of forecasts, since such frequency

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of atmospheric data cannot be inexpensively
obtained through any other means.

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In fact, forecasts globally became meaningfully
less accurate at the start of the COVID pandemic

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due to the loss of much of these data as air
travel took a downturn.\h

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But as important high-altitude data is to
predicting what’s to come on the ground,

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the NWS still needs to know what’s happening
on the ground right now.

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For that, there are 900 automated surface
observation systems, again spread out across

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the entire country, primarily at airports.

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These include a suite of sensors—temperature,
air pressure, humidity, cloud coverage, and

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more—that automatically report data back
to the NWS, and also automatically broadcast

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a radio frequency that pilots can use to gain
valuable intel into conditions at their destination

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airport.\h

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Some observations, however, cannot be efficiently
achieved through automated means.

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Some require the human touch.

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Precipitation—whether in rain, snow, or
something in between—is largely measured

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by a hoard of unpaid civilian volunteers,
donating their time to run 9,000 cooperative

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observer system sites across the country.

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Each follows strict protocol to provide the
NWS with a daily precipitation measurement

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for their local area, which is the primary
manner through which forecasters validate

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their forecasts—if they see that precipitation
is constantly under their prediction in a

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given area, they’ll adjust, and vice-versa.

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These data are also crucial for establishing
long-term trends—it was this program, for

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example, that observed that average precipitation
in the US has grown 7.8% since 1901 due to

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warming temperatures allowing the atmosphere
to hold more water.

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A similar, even larger program exists called
SKYWARN, where 350,000 trained volunteer weather

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spotters work with the NWS to act as their
eyes on the ground.

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These volunteers, many of which are amateur
radio enthusiasts that use their skills to

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communicate observations regardless of external
conditions, track severe weather to both allow

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the NWS to alert others of what’s to come
and to help them validate their weather models

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and forecasts.\h

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But weather is global, and therefore in order
to give Americans their forecast, the National

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Weather Service requires data from beyond
the American states, territories, and few

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foreign radar sites.

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That’s why the World Meteorological Organization
exists.

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This specialized United Nations agency has
myriad responsibilities, but perhaps the most

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pivotal centers around ensuring different
national forecasters can and do cooperate.

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As of a few years ago, data-sharing is mandatory
among all WMO members, meaning the US’ NWS

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gets meteorological data from its foreign
counterparts, and vice versa, regardless of

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their geopolitical status, thus improving
the quality of forecasts for all.\h

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As one of the world’s preeminent meteorological
organizations, the National Weather Service

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does, however, have some extra help in gathering
data from the rest of the world: satellites.

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For decades now, a rotating cast of satellites
have held two geostationary positions called

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GOES-east and GOES-west, streaming down a
deluge of imagery and meteorological data

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to the agency’s ground-station on Wallops
Island, Virginia.

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GOES-east and west are currently operated
by the GOES-16 and 17 satellites, respectively.

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In addition, the older GOES-15 satellite sits
next to GOES-17 to provide redundant coverage,

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due to a reliability issue with 17, while
GOES-14 sits powered-down in a storage orbit

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in case an issue with another requires a quick
replacement—any gap in coverage from GOES

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east or west would impact forecast accuracy
for hundreds of millions of Americans.

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Meanwhile, GOES-18 was launched in March,
2022 and will soon replace GOES-17 to operate

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as GOES-west.

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While these are focused on high-frequency,
ongoing coverage of the US and its immediate

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surroundings, the agency also operates a non-geostationary
satellite in a polar orbit to provide less-frequent

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yet still important data and imagery of the
rest of the world.

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A secondary function of these GOES satellites
is to act as a means of communication for

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the most remote NWS observation stations on
earth: buoys.

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Stationed hundreds or thousands of miles offshore,
weather buoys provide a glimpse into areas

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of the earth entirely devoid of humans or
civilization, but full of weather that could

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soon impact them.

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The network is run by NOAA’s National Data
Buoy Center, and each transmits near real-time

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conditions from the Great Lakes, Gulf of Mexico,
Atlantic, and Pacific, including giving life-saving

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warning of potential impending tsunamis, for
example.

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More typically, however, they provide the
same data land-based stations offer, but in

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an area useful for giving coastal regions
a heads up of what’s to come.

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On the hour, buoys record temperature and
pressure which is subsequently relayed by

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the GOES satellites to the mainland and the
supercomputers vacuuming up all possible data

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to help project an accurate weather model.

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The inclusion of these data may prove a good
thing, too, as the same time that the weather

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balloon floating over Minnesota is picking
up an in-bound high pressure front, this buoy,

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#42019 off the coast of Texas, is reading
an above average air temperature and a below

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average air pressure.

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For local forecasters, buoy station 42019,
along with other readings, hint at a developing

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low-pressure front—some rain might be arriving
along the gulf here soon.

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But as weather models render—taking into
account both an arctic front descending across

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the midwest and a warm, moisture-laden front
developing across the gulf, a little rain

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might soon be the least of the NWS’s worries.\h

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Weather develops at very different scales
and to very different consequences.

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To protect the individual, the thousands,
and the millions, the NWS has to predict weather

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developments at varying scales.

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These predictions of all size and shape all
largely emanate from here, the National Centers

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for Environmental Prediction’s Weather Prediction
Center, where data from balloons, buoys, planes,

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and satellites the world over pours into various
weather models.\h

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While the NWS produces a bevy of different
models, they broadly all work the same.

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In each, numbers representing observed environmental
conditions are plugged into a myriad of equations,

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the results of which, once overlaid on a map,
offer both an approximate snapshot of the

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current atmospheric conditions and a simulated
future that predicts how weather patterns

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will develop and move.

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While the same data, the same math, and the
same laws of physics undergird all weather

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modeling, it’s a model’s resolution and
range that differentiates one from the next.\h\h\h

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The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model, for
example, with its 2 mile, 3 kilometer resolution;

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its real-time visualizations; and its every-hour
updating, offers unmatched detail and accuracy

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on the development of rapid-moving thunderstorms
over the next hour, providing meteorologists

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more confidence in offering severe weather
warnings.

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What it can’t do is zoom out temporally
or spatially to forecast nationwide developments

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even hours into the future—it’s scope
is too focused.

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It can tell you to evacuate now, but can’t
help you decide to bring a rain jacket tomorrow.

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To help inform such important decisions between
rain jackets or sunscreen, meteorologists

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use the North American Mesoscale model, which
offers lower resolution than the HRRR but

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identifies patterns then forecasts their paths
out to 61 hours.

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For an even broader picture, the NWS relies
on the Global Forecast System which again

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takes a broader view than the NAW but is able
to interpret atmospheric patterns and weather

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developments of global scale and to predict
out to 10 days in the future—critical in

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tracking the long development of hurricanes,
for instance.

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Together, these models are incredibly powerful
predictive tools.

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Running all these models, in turn, requires
incredibly powerful computers.\h

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What makes all these models possible are two
of the largest supercomputers in the US.

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In the wake of the NWS’s Global Forecast
System failing to identify the dangerous potential

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of Hurricane Sandy, Congress green-lit increased
funding for NOAA.

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The result was the 2016 announcement that
NOAA had increased its computing power 10-fold

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with the introduction of two supercomputers
in Reston, Virginia and Orlando, Florida.

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The $45 million addition put the 18th fastest
computer in the US in the hands of NOAA which

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effectively evened the playing field between
the NWS and its European counterpart.

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Doubling down on the modernization effort,
NOAA again invested in its supercomputers

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in 2018, adding 60% more storage and more
than doubling their computing capacity—moves

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which made room for updates and improvements
to its models, from the HRRR to the GFS.\h

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Importantly, and further justifying such investment,
these super computers are not only tasked

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to run and re-run and re-run atmospheric models
all day, every day, they’re also tasked

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with creating ensemble models—effectively
running the same models time and time again

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with the parameters slightly changed to reflect
the random chance of real world weather, and

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to therefore give forecasters an idea of the
degree of uncertainty for a given prediction.

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If the forecast holds up despite the random
chance thrown in by the ensemble model, it’s

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more certain, and vice versa.

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Together, these various models and the supercomputers
that run them nonstop are immensely complex

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and extremely expensive.

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In the past they have proved incredibly valuable
when extreme weather arises, and in the future,

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as far-flung, disparate signs of storms quietly
develop, they’ll prove critical to meteorologists

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again.\h

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Hours after the launch of a weather balloon
in Minnesota and a buoy’s upload off the

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coast of Texas on an early March day they’re
proving their worth again as GFS forecasts,

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and then ensemble GFS forecasts are beginning
to project with higher confidence that a storm

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of significant destructive potential may be
brewing.\h

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In the days prior, as millibars dropped over
Texas, GFS models had identified the early

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stages of what meteorologists call a Gulf
Low.

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Now with buoys proving such predictions correct,
and with the concurrent development of a dropping

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cold front, they can now predict its direction
and potential severity.

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While this Gulf Low seems to be mirroring
historical patterns in that it too is primed

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to move a mountain of moisture out of the
Gulf of Mexico, this particular storm, thanks

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to the deepening cold front and a U-shaped
gulf stream, doesn’t look like it will track

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along the western edge of the Appalachians,
but rather, through some of the most densely

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populated regions of the American east coast.

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According to GFS forecasting, snow, and a
lot of it, is headed northeast.\h

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Of course, forecasts are meaningless by themselves.

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To avoid the disaster of an unprepared populace
in the firing line of an impending winter

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storm—plows still in the parking lot, stores
without extra stock, kids still in school,

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commuters on the road at the wrong time—the
National Weather Service has to actually communicate

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what’s to come.

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To achieve this, the agency has 122 weather
forecast offices distributed across the fifty

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states, Puerto Rico, and Guam, each responsible
for a dedicated zone of the country.

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The couple dozen staff in each work 24/7 to
interpret models and issue forecasts for their

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surrounding region.

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Perhaps most importantly, though, they monitor
and issue alerts for the most localized, and

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often most dangerous threats—severe thunderstorm,
flash flood, tornado warnings and more all

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come from local WFOs.

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The on-the-ground presence also allows WFOs
to tailor their activities to what’s necessary

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for the people they serve.

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The Fairbanks, Alaska WFO issues a daily climbing
weather forecast for nearby Denali—America’s

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tallest mountain.

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The Dodge City, Kansas WFO, surrounded by
hundreds of miles of wheat fields, reports

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daily soil temperatures so farmers can optimize
their yields.

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The Grand Junction, Colorado WFO monitors
and reports fire weather conditions—alerting

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the wildfire-prone area it’s responsible
for to the daily risk of one starting and

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spreading, and therefore informing campfire
bans, electric grid shutdowns, and more.

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Like most WFOs in fire-prone areas, the Grand
Junction office also staffs an Incident Meteorologist

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who is prepared to quickly deploy to the field
and embed in a wildfire camp to issue highly-specific

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forecasts used by aerial firefighting pilots,
hot shot crews, and other firefighters to

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safely approach and attack the burn.

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Finally, the local WFOs are responsible for
many of the NWS’ on-the-ground operations,

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from maintaining doppler radars and automated
surface observation stations to running the

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local NWS Twitter account and far, far more.\h

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Ultimately, though, certain weather is just
too big or otherworldly to be handled by small,

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local WFOs.

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For that, there are the national offices.

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Some are straightforward.

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Rivers, for example, run for hundreds or thousands
of miles through countless WFO zones, so there’s

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an additional system of thirteen river forecast
centers that split up the lower 48 and Alaska

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more or less based on watershed, issuing forecasts
for their rivers’ flows and, most importantly,

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their flood risk.

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Perhaps the best-known of these national offices
is the National Hurricane Center, based in

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a bunker-like building in Miami, Florida that’s
designed and certified to survive and operate

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through a category five hurricane—the most
severe level.

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They have the stressful task of predicting
the paths and intensities of hurricanes.

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If they get it right and people prepare, lives
will be saved.

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If they miss the forecast, lives will be lost—and
they potentially do this all while a hurricane

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passes directly over them.

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For this reason, the system is structured
so the National Weather Prediction Center

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in College Park, Maryland is prepared to take
over responsibilities in an instant if the

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Miami center GOES offline during a storm,
while there’s also an additional office

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in Honolulu, Hawaii that staffs up if a comparatively
rare central Pacific hurricane forms.\h

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Most uniquely, the National Weather Service
is also responsible for forecasting the weather

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not only beyond the borders of the US, but
beyond the borders of this world.

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The NWS’ Space Weather Prediction Center
in Boulder, Colorado takes in data from the

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GOES satellites and terrestrial sensors to
report current and forecast future solar radiation

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and other space weather.

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This isn’t just for the novelty, as high
solar radiation activity, for example, can

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impact the human world.

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High frequency radio gets disrupted during
solar flares, so commercial aircraft can’t

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fly routes over the poles where they rely
on it to talk to Air Traffic control if the

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center has forecasted high levels of radiation—and
that’s just the very start of issues solar

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flares can cause.\h

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Ultimately, though, the totality of the National
Weather Service’s work—the thousands of

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hourly observations from across the world
and beyond, the full processing might of two

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incredible supercomputers, the collective
efforts of thousands of highly-trained individuals—all

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distills down to this: a couple-megabyte XML
data feed updated every few minutes.

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Generally, people don’t get the weather
directly from the National Weather Service—they

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get it from the weather app on their phone,
the TV meteorologist, or whatever’s most

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convenient for them.

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Nearly every source of weather information
in the US relies on the work of the National

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Weather Service, even if it’s repacked and
rebranded, so the NWS works to make these

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data abundantly accessible to those that get
it to the end-user.

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These XML data-feeds are a major source, providing
a structured set of current conditions and

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forecasts that can be quickly adapted and
interpreted by software, and everyone, from

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individuals to commercial companies, is legally
allowed to use these data since, as a production

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of the US-government, it is not copyrighted
and does not require a license.\h

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Of course, the times when weather information
is most important are often also the times

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when communications are most difficult—the
internet and TV might not be accessible when

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it really matters.

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Therefore, some 95% of the US population is
within range of a NOAA Weather Radio station

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which automatically broadcast a 24/7 feed
of conditions and forecasts.

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As a last-resort, the National Weather service
also runs the Emergency Managers Weather Information

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00:18:57,970 --> 00:19:02,390
Network, which uses their GOES satellites
to broadcast a data-feed down to earth that,

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uniquely, is accessible to anyone with a compatible
satellite receiver.

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00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:11,760
This data-feed, available at 1694.1 megahertz,
includes all the highlights of conditions

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00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:16,630
and forecasts for sites across the US, and
even includes these visual forecasts, satellite

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imagery, and other images for onward use—allowing
TV stations, emergency managers, and others

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00:19:21,580 --> 00:19:26,890
to access this crucial information regardless
of the condition of the world around them.\h

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00:19:26,890 --> 00:19:32,470
In sum, this is how the National Weather Service
tells the east coast a snowstorm is coming:

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00:19:32,470 --> 00:19:36,740
all it requires is a couple of satellites
and supercomputers; hundreds of radars, observation

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00:19:36,740 --> 00:19:41,650
stations, buoys, weather balloons, aircraft,
and weather forecast offices; and thousands

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00:19:41,650 --> 00:19:46,400
upon thousands of dedicated staff and volunteers.\h

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00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:50,510
Rather than do the normal style of ad—since,
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\h